Keir Starmer's Allies Initiate 'Stop Andy Burnham' Effort to Thwart Manchester Mayor's Parliamentary Return

Close associates of Labour leader Keir Starmer have allegedly set in motion a coordinated effort to prevent Andy Burnham, the Labour Party Mayor of Greater Manchester, from securing a comeback to the House of Commons. This action follows the stepping down of a Manchester-area MP, which has sparked an upcoming byelection.

Major Barriers in the Candidate Selection Procedure

Several members on the Labour Party's ruling national executive committee (NEC) have reportedly suggested it would be extremely difficult for Mr. Burnham to successfully pass through the candidate selection procedure. This is largely due to the significant number of Starmer loyalists on the body who are keen to avoid any potential leadership challenge.

The Labour hierarchy reportedly mobilised following the announcement of the MP's intended resignation, with officials and MPs raising concerns about the considerable financial cost and electoral danger of a resulting election for mayor in Greater Manchester.

The Mayor's Aspirations and Party Concerns

Andy Burnham has made no secret of his political ambitions. Previously, he caused consternation within No 10 and among cabinet ministers when he stated that numerous MPs had encouraged him to run for the party leadership.

There has long been speculation that he is aiming for a return to parliament to possibly stand for the Labour leadership if a challenge to Sir Keir arise. However, allies of the Greater Manchester Mayor have cautioned against exaggerating the extent of any planning, suggesting he is deeply committed to his current role and would solely return national politics if he felt he had something to contribute.

"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," a supporter stated.

Political Landscape and Poll Ratings

Amid opinion polls suggesting Sir Keir is unpopular and many MPs pessimistic about Labour's fate at the forthcoming election, Andy Burnham is seen as the only senior Labour figure with consistently positive public approval ratings.

Should Mr. Burnham decide to run, several hurdles remain. He would need to be approved by the NEC—where the odds are not in his favour—and then win the byelection against challenges from Reform and independent candidates, all prior to any possible leadership challenge.

The 'Stop Andy' Campaign

Senior Labour figures have said that a "Block Burnham" operation is already in progress, with the party machinery being tightly controlled by key allies of the Prime Minister.

The Prime Minister himself commented that the by-election procedure was in its "initial phases" and told his MPs to cease discussion of potential contests for the leadership.

Andy Burnham, speaking before the MP's resignation was confirmed, said to journalists: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."

Financial and Political Dangers

Figures on the committee have reportedly cited not only personal opposition towards Mr. Burnham but also the significant expense of a mayoral byelection in Greater Manchester. This could divert around £500,000 in party funding from other crucial elections across the country.

"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," a figure stated.

A number of sources also shared fears about Reform UK potentially fill any vacancy left by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a major political win for them.

Union Influence and Democratic Concerns

As a publicly elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's permission to stand. There is also speculation the body could impose an women-only shortlist to prevent his candidacy.

However, one Burnham ally warned against presuming the NEC would simply block his candidacy, even though Sir Keir's team is largely believed to control it.

The unions occupy a sizable number of seats on the NEC. While the biggest unions are currently remaining quiet, sources indicated they would be uncomfortable with anything seen as meddling from Downing Street.

The leader of the Fire Brigades Union stated: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."

Electoral Challenges

The seat in question has a considerable Labour lead. However, Reform UK is expected to launch a significant challenge, capitalising on support in one part of the constituency. Labour believes it is on firmer ground in the more populous Greater Manchester section, though it could encounter some pressure from pro-Gaza independents.

If Mr. Burnham return to parliament, he would need the backing of 80 Labour MPs to launch a leadership challenge, a requirement that is not guaranteed given he is viewed with scepticism by a number of on the parliamentary party.

The resigning MP stated he was stepping down due to declining mental health, which had made it impossible for him to continue in his role. He is also subject to a standards inquiry related to his involvement in an offensive online group.