Foreign Office Advised Against Military Action to Overthrow Robert Mugabe

Recently released papers reveal that the Foreign Office cautioned against British military action to overthrow the former Zimbabwean president, the long-serving leader, in 2004, advising it was not considered a "serious option".

Policy Papers Reveal Deliberations on Handling a "Remarkably Robust" Leader

Internal documents from the then Prime Minister's government indicate officials considered options on how best to deal with the "remarkably robust" 80-year-old dictator, who refused to step down as the country descended into turmoil and financial collapse.

Following the ruling party winning a 2005 election, and a year after the UK joined a US-led coalition to oust Iraqi leader Saddam Hussein, No 10 asked the Foreign Office in July 2004 to produce potential courses of action.

Policy of Isolation Considered Ineffective

Diplomats concluded that the UK's strategy to isolate Mugabe and building an international agreement for change was not working, having not managed to secure support from key African nations, notably the then South African president, the South African leader.

Options outlined in the files were:

• "Attempt to remove Mugabe by force";
• "Implement tougher UK measures" such as seizing finances and shuttering the UK embassy; or
• "Re-open dialogue", the option advocated by the then departing ambassador to Zimbabwe.

"Our experience shows from conflicts abroad that altering a government and/or its harmful policies is almost impossible from the outside."

The diplomatic assessment rejected military action as not a "serious option," adding that "The only candidate for leading such a military operation is the UK. No one else (even the US) would be willing to do so".

Warnings of Heavy Casualties and Jurisdictional Barriers

It cautioned that military involvement would cause heavy casualties and have "serious consequences" for UK nationals in Zimbabwe.

"Short of a severe human and political disaster – resulting in widespread bloodshed, large-scale refugee flows, and instability in the region – we assess that no nation in Africa would support any attempts to remove Mugabe forcibly."

The document adds: "Nor do we judge that any other international ally (including the US) would authorise or participate in military intervention. And there would be no jurisdictional basis for doing so, without an approving Security Council Resolution, which we would fail to obtain."

Long-Term Strategy Recommended

Blair's foreign policy adviser, Laurie Lee, advised Blair that Zimbabwe "will be a real spoiler" to his plan to use the UK's leadership of the G8 to make 2005 "the year of Africa". The adviser stated that as military action had been ruled out, "it is likely necessary that we must play the longer game" and re-open talks with Mugabe.

Blair seemed to concur, writing: "We should work out a way of exposing the lies and malpractice of Mugabe and Zanu-PF ahead of this election and then afterwards, we could try to re-engage on the basis of a clear understanding."

The departing ambassador, in his valedictory telegram, had advocated cautious renewed contact with Mugabe, though he understood the Prime Minister "would likely be appalled given all that Mugabe has uttered and perpetrated".

Robert Mugabe was ultimately removed in a military takeover in 2017, aged 93. Previous claims that in the early 2000s Blair had tried to pressurise Thabo Mbeki into joining a armed alliance to overthrow Mugabe were vehemently rejected by the ex-British leader.